Blog Post #2 LoBue, Gaby
Blog Post #1 - POLS170
Gaby LoBue
A Deterrence Strategy in the Russian Invasion on Ukraine
The unnerving threats of nuclear weapons is one of the latest developments in the Russian invasion on Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin placing their weapons on high alert as sanctions are imposed on their involvement in the international economy. The question looming is if Russian forces are willing to engage in a nuclear war, considering the consequences this may have on international relations. From the United State’s perspective, it appears that officials are willing to do everything to prevent further attacks on Ukraine, not including military efforts. These attempts are shaping into a deterrence strategy on both sides, where the United States is trying to block Russian leaders from pursuing both nuclear and military operations, and Russia threatening greater attacks.
The deterrence strategy was first used in the Cold War by the United States towards the Soviet’s imminent threats, suggesting that the US will respond with a greater attack than the one initiated by the Soviet Union (USA Today). This is comparable to both strategies established by US and Russian forces. As the United States imposes economic threats, Russia has taken a nuclear approach, threatening using nuclear weapons and attacking civilians in Ukrainian cities. President Biden and allies in Europe are aiding the situation by imposing sanctions that are cutting off the Russian economy from the rest of the world, like the SWIFT banking system and businesses personally cutting off their previous business dealings with Russia (WSJ, Western Companies). With these restrictions in place, it halts the growth of the Russian economy, which could increase inflation, lower the power of their currency (Ruble), and Russia’s ability to finance their military (WSJ, Russia’s Ruble). This has launched an even greater response from Russia, where President Putin has recently responded with impending nuclear threats (USA Today). As both nations are remaining firm in their response strategies, it’s hard to tell whether the actions continuously being set forth by the US and NATO allies could trigger a nuclear response. This question remains up in the air at the moment, with talks between Russian and Ukrainian leaders unsuccessful as Russian attacks are receiving retaliation by both Ukrainian military and civilian actions. As both leaders have remained firm with the posed “consequences” they will both face, it alludes to the deterrence strategies both sides are implementing, making the future of this crisis more uncertain.
From the articles I have read and my interpretation of them, it seems like Russia might not have any option but to pull out of Ukraine soon. This may be wishful thinking, but with the sanctions hurting their economy and stock market, coupled with their under-anticipated success militarily, it seems like they are being backed into a corner. The United States and NATO allies have remained thorough in aiding Ukraine as best they can, which has displayed a strong front. Having said that, as we’ve discussed in class, this may trigger President Putin to use nuclear weapons as their last resort. Or, we may see a spike in military efforts from Russia, since President Putin seems adamant about gaining control of some regions. As these threats materialize, the question of looming nuclear attacks remains questionable.
I really enjoyed reading this blog post. Your inclusion of outside sources made your claims much more believable, and I really liked that your last paragraph featured an analysis of the situation. Your comparison of the current Russia-Ukraine crisis to the Cold War was both intriguing and logical. While I think this is a very strong post, I would suggest mentioning your intention to compare the Cold War and the Russia-Ukraine crisis earlier within the blog. Since these posts are relatively short, it could be of benefit to mention this comparison in the first paragraph of this writing.
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